🎉 Labor crisis INCOMING

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Good Afternoon Party People! 🎉

Back with another PARTY in your inbox. The weekend is almost here. The sun is out. Summer is around the corner. Vibes are good. Let’s party.


😨 Impending labor crisis?

📈 Jobless claims

🌿 The grass ain’t always greener

And, of course, MEMES!



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Labor Crisis INCOMING…

Buckle up, folks, the labor market is about to get even more rocky.

Over the last 8 months, the US native-born population has decreased by 2.6 million. During the same time period, the foreign-born population has risen by 2.7 million.

Many foreign-born individuals don’t have permits to work in the United States, which leaves them vulnerable to unfair working conditions and/or wages.

💡 Combined with an unprecedented number of people retiring early due to the pandemic, experts are predicting MASSIVE labor shortages in the coming months/years.

(Not if AI has anything to do about it).

Experts disagree on what this means for the future of the labor market.

One potential outcome is that companies hold on for dear life to the talent that they have.

💡 This would be great news for job seekers as there would be a huge demand for talent and a small supply.

Another theory is that a rocky labor market combined with high interest rates and inflation could start a domino effect that leads to a recession.

Ruh roh.

BUT - given how tough the job market has been, maybe this is actually a positive sign for job seekers?



Jobless Claims Are Sky High

graph showing jobless claims

Ok, so there may be a labor crisis. But what do jobless claims look like right now?

Initial filings for unemployment benefits just hit their highest level since August of last year.

How is the job market for you?

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The Labor Department reported 231,000 new jobless claims for the week wending May 4th, up 22k from the week prior. Continuing claims, which lag one week behind, increased by 17k up to 1.78 million.

The increase in jobless claims was forecasted after hiring in April was lighter than expected. There has also been a decline in job openings across several industries over the last couple of months.

💡 Experts say that the labor market is likely to slow down throughout the rest of the year.

“Weekly jobless claims are one of the timeliest indicators of when the economy is starting to undergo serious deterioration, and the magnitude of new layoffs this week looks worrisome. One week does not a trend make, but we can no longer be sure that calm seas lie ahead for the US economy if today’s weekly jobless claims are any indication.”

-Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175k in April, which was well below Wall Street’s estimate of 240k. It was the smallest gain since October of 2023.

💡 Despite the all around shaky numbers, the unemployment rate remained at 3.9%, continuing to hold below 4% since February of 2022.


The Grass Ain’t Greener?

In Tuesday’s post, we asked our readers if they had ever quit a job…and then regretted it.

53% of readers said that they have never regretted quitting a job. But the other 47%? They had some regrets.

Below are some of the responses from the poll:

“I left for a "grass is greener" opportunity, which turned out to be a cultural disaster. The CEO was incredibly controlling and she treated many of her employees terribly. I should have never left my previous employer. Lesson learned! ”

“Almost immediately- kinda like buyers remorse. It was an internal transfer and the new manager was a 'tough guy.' I told myself I needed to give it 6 months and by the end of the 6 months I had a different manager, loved the role and stayed in the department for nearly 5 years.”

“The new position I left for was terrible and toxic.”

💡 Lesson: When switching jobs, it’s important to do your homework. Companies love to make false promises to candidates, lure them away with pay, titles, etc. 

If you’re in a good situation, it may make sense to stay put. Especially in times where the job market is tough…



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